Brisket · Choice
Brisket, Deckle-Off, Boneless (120)
$4.40/lb +20% vs normal
Boxed beef eases 1.5% in a month, still 16% above normal, amid cattle prices 7% below last year.
Boxed Beef Price $3.77/lb (Choice) · normal for late September: $3.25/lb.
- Next 4 wks
- usually firms ~2%
- Next 13 wks
- usually near today's level by Christmas
Why
- Fewer cattle harvested (−5.2% vs last yr)→ less beef in the box → supports pricesData as of Aug 22
- Cattle cost less than a year ago (−7.2% vs last yr)→ less cost pressure on boxesData as of Sep 21
- This time of year→ the Boxed Beef Price usually firms ~2% over 4 weeks → Strip usually moves most, +8%
Lock in before the holiday run-up. Chuck flap usually climbs about 21% by late November. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Book early for grilling season. Tri-tip usually climbs about 44% by mid-June. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
Relief ahead. Eye of round usually eases about 21% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
All 24 seasonal notes
Lock in
Lock in before the holiday run-up. Chuck flap usually climbs about 21% by late November. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the fall run-up. Bone-in strip usually climbs about 15% by late October. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the holiday run-up. Strip usually climbs about 12% by mid-November. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the holiday run-up. Bone-in ribeye usually climbs about 18% by mid-December. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the holiday run-up. PSMO usually climbs about 15% by late November. Lock in pricing with your supplier now. It usually eases again by late December.
Lock in before the holiday run-up. Ribeye usually climbs about 13% by early December. Lock in pricing with your supplier now. It usually eases again by late December.
Lock in before the holiday run-up. Tenderloin butt usually climbs about 13% by mid-December. Lock in pricing with your supplier now. It usually eases again by early January.
Lock in before the holiday run-up. Short loin usually climbs about 10% by mid-November. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Book
Book early for grilling season. Tri-tip usually climbs about 44% by mid-June. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
Book early for spring. Outside skirt usually climbs about 38% by mid-April. Plan spring menus and book it now.
Book early for grilling season. Peeled outside skirt usually climbs about 20% by late May. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
Relief ahead
Relief ahead. Eye of round usually eases about 21% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Knuckle usually eases about 17% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Chuck tender usually eases about 15% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Ball tip usually eases about 11% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Flank steak usually eases about 23% by late January. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Top round (untrimmed) usually eases about 17% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Cap-off top round usually eases about 17% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Top round usually eases about 17% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Bottom round flat usually eases about 13% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Retail-ready chuck roll usually eases about 13% by late November. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Chuck roll usually eases about 12% by late November. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Gooseneck round usually eases about 8% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Cap and wedge meat usually eases about 8% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
In the news Sep 28 ICE Enforcement Hampers Beef Packing in Kansas, Delaying Thousands of Cattle DTN/Progressive Farmer
Boxed Beef Price, Choice
$/cwt · weekly · USDA · this year over the last two
2024202520263-yr avgProjection
This week
$378
4-wk change
▼ 2%
vs 3-yr avg
+16%
13-wk proj
$374
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, week of Sep 25, 2026 · Seymour Meat estimate: the Upper ⅔ premium.
Ribeye · Choice
Rib, Ribeye Roll, Lip-On (112A)
$15.73/lb +30% vs normal
Lock in · ~13% by early Dec
Outside skirt · Choice & Select
Plate, Outside Skirt (121C)
$8.76/lb +30% vs normal
Book · ~38% by mid-Apr
Sirloin flap · Choice
Loin, Bottom Sirloin Butt, Flap (185A)
$7.49/lb +7% vs normal
Strip · Choice
Loin, Strip Loin, Boneless, 0x1 (180)
$9.90/lb +39% vs normal
Lock in · ~12% by mid-Nov
PSMO · Choice
Loin, Tenderloin, Side Muscle On, Defatted, Heavy (189A)
$16.70/lb +9% vs normal
Lock in · ~15% by late Nov
- Sep 28 Feeder cattle market: Grids covered in red as Angus spread narrows Beef Central
- Sep 26 Feedback from cattle levy review consultation meetings released Beef Central
Seymour Meat is an independent weekly read on beef, for the people who buy it for a menu. We take USDA market data and make it easy to understand: where each cut sits against its own history, where the season usually takes it, and what that means for your menu costs. Updated every Friday and Monday.